7) Chile has avoided the problem of overly optimistic official forecasts.
The conclusion: official forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, if not insulated from politics, and the problem can be worse when the government is formally subject to budget rules.
Since 2000, fiscal policy in Chile has been governed by a structural budget rule that has succeeded in implementing countercyclical fiscal policy.
Official estimates of trend output and the 10-year price of copper - which are key to the decomposition of the budget into structural versus cyclical components - are made by expert panels and thus insulated from the political process.
"A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. Bulletin on Retirement and Disability Bulletin on Health including Archive of Lists of Affiliates' Work in Medical and Other Journals with Pre-Publication Restrictions Archives of Bulletin on Aging and Health Digest — Non-technical summaries of 4-8 working papers per month Reporter — News about the Bureau and its activities.
The 24th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists will take place in Manchester in June 2019.Research Nucleus in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics at the University of Concepción is organizing the Fifth Workshop on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, 5th and 6th October 2017, and the Fourth Short course to policy makers on “Compliance and Enforcement of Environmental Policy and Management of Natural Resources”, 4th October 2017.It will take place at Termas de Catillo, Maule Region in Chile.The Ef D annual meeting is a forum to bring together researchers from Ef D centers, their collaborators and other key stakeholders for exchange of research ideas, discussion of research proposals and presentation of results from Ef D projects.Ef D participated at the 5th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (WCERE) in Istanbul, Turkey from June 28 to July 2, 2014.Ef D would also like to attract key stakeholders for exchange of research ideas. This year’s EAERE conference served as platform to showcase Ef D’s research efforts.Including special sessions dedicated to specific initiatives such as the collaborative program from Duke University, The Sustainable Energy Transition Initiative (SETI).During Ef D's seventh annual meeting, spring began to warm the Western Cape of South Africa creating a fertile environment for over 70 delegates to present fresh research findings and exchange knowledge and techniques.This year the Ef D annual meeting will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from: October 27-30, 2017.Chile's fiscal institutions hold useful lessons everywhere, but especially in other commodity exporting countries.This paper finds statistical support for a series of hypotheses regarding forecasts by official agencies that have responsibility for formulating the budget.